The UAE and Jordan face the highest share of jobs at risk of substitution by artificial intelligence (AI) in the Middle East, according to the World Bank’s October 2026 Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (MENAAP) Economic Update.
However, the report highlights a wider opportunity for businesses. Across the region, AI could improve productivity in 13% to 20% of jobs. By contrast, the share of jobs at risk of substitution does not exceed about 10%.
The findings underline a key challenge for employers. They must balance AI adoption with workforce planning, employee skills development and changes to job design.
UAE has the broadest occupational footprint of AI use
The UAE has the widest range of occupations using AI across the MENAAP region. The technology has an above-average presence in nine of the 22 occupational groups analysed by the World Bank.
Moreover, AI use extends beyond software and technical roles. It also reaches management, sales, arts and media, food preparation, and personal care.
The report links this broad adoption to the UAE’s national AI strategy, launched in 2017. The strategy identified sectors such as hospitality, retail and logistics for AI integration, alongside technology.
The UAE has also made AI a central part of its economic diversification plans. Under the National Strategy for Artificial Intelligence 2031, the country is integrating AI into government services, healthcare, energy, logistics and finance.
For employers, this wider adoption creates opportunities to improve efficiency and decision-making. However, it also increases the need to assess how AI will change existing roles and the skills employees require.
Why higher-income economies face greater AI exposure
The World Bank attributes the higher exposure in economies such as the UAE to their employment mix.
Higher-income economies have more workers in cognitive occupations. These roles involve tasks that generative AI can perform or assist with, making them more exposed to potential substitution.
However, exposure does not automatically mean job losses. AI can replace some tasks while helping employees perform others more efficiently.
The report estimates that the value of work already performed or assisted by AI tools, relative to gross domestic product (GDP), is highest in the Gulf. The UAE’s ratio approaches those of Germany and the UK.
This estimate draws on a sample of one million Claude conversations published by Anthropic. The World Bank cautions that these users may be more educated and work in more knowledge-intensive fields than the wider population. As a result, the findings could overstate AI’s productivity gains.
AI productivity gains are not guaranteed
Although AI could raise productivity across 13% to 20% of jobs in the region, employers cannot assume these gains will materialise automatically.
Businesses need to identify suitable use cases, integrate AI into existing workflows and develop employees’ capabilities. They must also assess which tasks require human judgement and where automation can deliver measurable benefits.
The findings therefore point to a broader workforce challenge. Companies need to understand how AI affects individual tasks, rather than treating entire occupations as either safe or at risk.
For HR leaders, this means connecting AI investment with skills planning, job redesign and employee training. These measures can help organisations capture productivity gains while preparing workers for changing responsibilities.
Pakistan and Afghanistan report the lowest exposure
Pakistan and Afghanistan have the lowest shares of jobs at risk of AI substitution in the region. However, the World Bank attributes this pattern mainly to differences in the types of work people perform, rather than stronger AI preparedness.
The report also highlights the impact of AI on online freelance work. Since ChatGPT launched, the value of jobs involving the skills most exposed to AI substitution has fallen by 9.8%. The number of new workers entering those skills has also declined by 12.1%, compared with the least exposed skills.
Egypt and Pakistan rank among the world’s five largest suppliers of freelancers across major online platforms, covering more than 2,700 skill areas. Changes in demand for AI-exposed skills could therefore affect workers who depend on these platforms.
At the same time, the region faces uneven access to the resources needed for AI adoption. The World Bank notes that AI talent is concentrated in the Gulf, while middle-income countries face a brain drain. Reliable electricity and broadband also remain unavailable in some economies.
Innovation presents another challenge. Only 16% of firms across the region introduced a new product or service in the previous three years, compared with 29% in other emerging markets.
UAE and Saudi Arabia strengthen their AI capabilities
The UAE and Saudi Arabia are the only countries in the region ranked among the global top 25 for both AI model development and high-performance computing.
The UAE climbed from 32nd place in 2017 to eighth in 2024 in Stanford University’s Global AI Vibrancy Index. Meanwhile, enrolment in generative AI courses on Coursera grew by 344% year on year.
However, participation remains uneven. Women account for only about one-fifth to one-quarter of enrolments in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt.
These gaps matter as employers expand AI adoption. Access to training, a broader talent pipeline and opportunities to develop technical skills will influence how effectively businesses use the technology.
For organisations across the Gulf, the central question is no longer simply whether AI can perform a task. It is how businesses can reorganise work, build employee capabilities and translate adoption into sustained productivity gains.
